As the global surface temperature reaches 1.1°C higher today than observed in 1850–1900, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere have been rapid and widespread, with far-reaching consequences for societies globally. Climate change is therefore the largest challenge facing humanity today. Based on the 2023 synthesis report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), how far have we come to averting disaster and how much further do we need to go?
How did we get here and where are we now?
The IPCC’s report states that emissions of greenhouse gases are the unequivocal cause of global warming and climate change. Emissions continue to rise globally due to “unsustainable energy use, land use, land-use change, lifestyles and patterns of consumption and production.”
It is also important to note that the production of emissions is unequal from a historical perspective, with more advanced nations, which were significant players in the industrial revolution, particularly large emitters of greenhouse gasses over the past century. At present, emissions are unequal across regions, between and within countries, and among individuals.
The report states that “human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.” In short, climate change is already negatively impacting nature, people, and economies, with more vulnerable communities disproportionately affected.
Current progress
Despite some progress in policies and laws, it is estimated that emissions in 2030 based on current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reduce emissions will make it likely that global warming will exceed 1.5°C, with an increase of 2°C not out of the question. The report notes that “there are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance falls short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions.”
Challenges
As emissions and temperature rise, the impact of global warming and climate change are expected to intensify and worsen. At the current rate of emissions, climatic and non-climatic consequences of global warming are expected to compound and become increasingly complex to manage. In this scenario, adaptation options that are effective today may not be effective tomorrow. However, there is hope if urgent adaptations and mitigation measures are implemented, with the report noting that “rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years.”
However, there are challenges associated with implementing adaptation and mitigation measures, including the need for political will and alignment, high associated costs, access to technology, and unequal access to finance.
Mitigation and adaptation strategies
All global modelled pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C require rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors. The report recommends the following strategies to limit global warming.
- Deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade.
- Rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors to technologies that reduce emissions.
- Prioritising equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes.
- Encouraging political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology.
- Finance, technology and international cooperation.
Conclusion
Despite progress and increased acceptance of the human-caused nature of climate change, the future of humanity rests on the rapid implementation of adaption measures in the next decade, which would reduce damage to nature, humans, and the global economy. In summary, we have a long way to go very quickly to ensure that humanity successfully averts climate breakdown.
This article is based on the IPCC 2023 synthesis report, which can be found here: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/.
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